QRZ.RU EXPRESS от 4 августа 2024

Опубликовано: 03 августа 2024 в 1231 UTC
SIDC URSIGRAM 40803
Состояние солнечной активности на 03 августа 2024, 1230UT
Прогноз SIDC
Солнечные вспышки. Ожидаются вспышки класса M (вероятность >=50%)
Геомагнитное поле: Возмущенное (A>=20, K=4)
Солнечные протоны: Ожидается увеличение возмущенности (уровни активности повысятся,
но точного числового прогноза нет)
Прогноз на 03 августа 2024: Солнечный поток в диапазоне 10см: 245 / AP-индекс: 007
Прогноз на 04 августа 2024: Солнечный поток в диапазоне 10см: 242 / AP-индекс: 011
Прогноз на 05 августа 2024: Солнечный поток в диапазоне 10см: 240 / AP-индекс: 008
Комментарий (на английском языке): Solar Active Regions and flaring: Solar flaring activity over the last 24 hours has been at high levels, with eight M-class flares. The strongest flare was an M1.9 flare peaking at 07:30 UTC on August 03, from NOAA AR 3770 (beta-delta). There are currently thirteen numbered active regions on the solar disk. The most complex ones are NOAA ARs 3765 and 3772 (both beta-gamma-delta). NOAA ARs 3763, 3764, 3765, 3766, 3770 and 3773 are currently rotating behind the west limb. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares expected and a chance for X-class flares. Coronal mass ejections: A large filament eruption was observed around 18:40 UTC on August 02 in AIA 304 data, in the sountwest quadrant. A prominence eruption was observed around 23:55 UTC on August 02 in AIA 304 data, in the east limb, near the equator. A second filament eruption was observed around 01:45 UTC on August 03 in AIA 304 data, in the northwest quadrant near NOAA AR 3770. No associated coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in the available coronagraph imagery for these events. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery. Solar wind: The solar wind conditions are returning to the slow solar wind regime, with speed values ranging from 330 km/s to 438 km/s and an interplanetary magnetic field between 1 nT and 8.9 nT. The Bz component varied between -6.6 nT and 5.9 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominantly in the positive sector, with two negative intervals between 14:00-15:45 UTC and 18:00-21:45 UTC on August 02. Mostly slow solar wind conditions are expected over the next 24 hours, with possible enhancements after UTC midday on August 04 due to the potential arrival of glancing blows from the coronal mass ejections (CMEs) observed on July 31. Geomagnetism: Geomagnetic conditions globally were mostly at quiet levels (NOAA Kp 2) with unsettled intervals (NOAA Kp 3) between 21:00-00:00 UTC on Augst 02 and 03:00-06:00 UTC on August 03. Geomagnetic conditions locally were mostly at quiet levels (K BEL 2), with unsettled intervals (K BEL 3) between 13:00-16:00 and 22:00-00:00 UTC on August 02, and 04:00-06:00 UTC on August 03. Mostly quiet to unsettled levels, with possible active intervals (NOAA Kp 2 to 4) are expected globally and locally over the next 24 hours, due to a possible arrival of a glancing blow from the coronal mass ejections (CMEs) observed on July 31. Proton flux levels: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the threshold level over the next 24 hours, pending new eruptive activity from the active regions near the west limb and the active regions clustered around NOAA AR 3766. Electron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the threshold level in the last 24 hours and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence is presently at normal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.Сегодняшнее значение числа солнечных пятен (International Sunspot Number): 219,
получено на основе анализа результатов 14 станций наблюдения.
Солнечные индексы за 02 Aug 2024
Число Вольфа по данным обсерватории Катания (IT9): ///
Солнечный поток в диапазоне 10см: 247
A-индекс по данным обсерватории Chambon-la-Foret (F): 014
A-индекс по данным обсерватории Wingst (DL): 012
Планетарный А-индекс Ap: 012
Вчерашнее значение числа солнечных пятен (International Sunspot Number): 240,
получено на основе анализа результатов 23 станций наблюдения.
Прошедшие события на Солнце:
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES
02 1228 1233 1238 S08W79 M1.2 SF ///3773
02 1344 1350 1400 N19E43 M1.1 SN ///3775 VI/1
02 1521 1530 1535 S06W60 M1.5 SN 32/3766 VI/1
03 0022 0027 0032 S10E64 M1.0 SF ///3777
02 2341 2358 0022 ////// M1.3 ///////
03 0445 0459 0505 N09W59 M1.5 SF ///3770
03 0652 0705 0711 ////// M1.5 ///3770
03 0711 0730 0734 ////// M1.9 ///3770