QRZ.RU EXPRESS от 3 августа 2024

Опубликовано: 02 августа 2024 в 1231 UTC
SIDC URSIGRAM 40802
Состояние солнечной активности на 02 августа 2024, 1230UT
Прогноз SIDC
Солнечные вспышки. Ожидаются вспышки класса M (вероятность >=50%)
Геомагнитное поле: Возмущенное (A>=20, K=4)
Солнечные протоны: Ожидается увеличение возмущенности (уровни активности повысятся,
но точного числового прогноза нет)
Прогноз на 02 августа 2024: Солнечный поток в диапазоне 10см: 235 / AP-индекс: 014
Прогноз на 03 августа 2024: Солнечный поток в диапазоне 10см: 232 / AP-индекс: 007
Прогноз на 04 августа 2024: Солнечный поток в диапазоне 10см: 229 / AP-индекс: 014
Комментарий (на английском языке): Solar Active Regions and flaring: Solar flaring activity over the last 24 hours has been at high levels, with twelve M-class flares. The strongest flare was an M7.4 flare from NOAA AR 3768 (beta-gamma-delta), which has rotated beyond the visible disk. There are currently thirteen numbered active regions on the solar disk. The most complex ones are NOAA ARs 3765 and 3772 (both beta-gamma-delta). NOAA AR 3768 has rotated behind the west limb, but may still exhibit flaring activity. NOAA ARs 3762 and 3771 have rotated behind the west limb. NOAA AR 3773 is currently rotating behind the west limb. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares expected and a chance for X-class flares. Coronal mass ejections: Further analysis of the halo coronal mass ejection (CME) observed in LASCO/C2 coronagraph imagery around 06:40 UTC on August 01 suggests that a mild glancing blow may arrive at Earth at UTC midday on August 04. A wide CME was observed in LASCO/C2 and LASCO/C3 coronagraph imagery around 11:45 UTC on August 01, lifting off the southeast quadrant. It is likely associated with two M-class flares from NOAA AR 3772 peaking at 11:37 and 11:47 UTC on August 01. It is not expected to have an Earth- directed component. A wide CME was observed in LASCO/C2 and LASCO/C3 coronagraph imagery starting from 21:42 UTC on August 01, lifting off the northeast quadrant. It is possibly associated with a filament eruption near NOAA AR 3775 and it is not expected to have an Earth directed component. A partial halo CME was observed in LASCO/C2 and LASCO/C3 coronagraph imagery starting from 04:17 UTC on August 02. It is likely associated with flaring activity near the west limb from NOAA ARs 3768 or 3773. A related type II radio emission was observed, starting at 04:49 UTC on August 01, with an estimated velocity of 438 km/s. A related type IV radio emission was observed, starting at 04:57 UTC on August 01. This CME is not expected to have an Earth-directed component. Further analysis of these events is ongoing. No other Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery. Solar wind: Solar wind conditions were still slightly enhanced during the last 24 hours due to the effects of the suspected combined arrival of the coronal mass ejections (CMEs) as reported on August 01. Speed values reached a maximum of about 460 km/s and the interplanetary magnetic field a maximum of 12 nT. The Bz component varied between -4.3 nT and 9.1 nT, but was mostly positive. The interplanetary magnetic field angle was in the positive sector. Enhancements in the solar wind conditions may still be expected over the next 24 hours in case of a late arrival of the partial halo CME (observed at 02:40 UTC on July 29) and a possible glancing blow from another CME (obesrved at 13:36 UTC on July 29). Geomagnetism: Geomagnetic conditions globally were mostly at unsettled levels (NOAA Kp 3) until 06:00 UTC on August 02, when they decreased to quiet levels (NOAA Kp 2). Geomagnetic conditions locally were mostly at unsettled levels (K BEL 3), with a brief active interval (K BEL 4) between 14:00 and 15:00 UTC on August 01. They are currently at quiet levels (K BEL 2). Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions, with possible active intervals (NOAA Kp 2 to 4) are expected globally and locally over the next 24 hours in case of a late arrival of a coronal mass ejection (CME) and a possible glancing blow. Proton flux levels: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the threshold level over the next 24 hours, pending new eruptive activity from the active regions near the west limb and the active regions clustered around NOAA AR 3766. Electron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the threshold level in the last 24 hours and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence is presently at normal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.Сегодняшнее значение числа солнечных пятен (International Sunspot Number): 244,
получено на основе анализа результатов 18 станций наблюдения.
Солнечные индексы за 01 Aug 2024
Число Вольфа по данным обсерватории Катания (IT9): ///
Солнечный поток в диапазоне 10см: 234
A-индекс по данным обсерватории Chambon-la-Foret (F): 024
A-индекс по данным обсерватории Wingst (DL): 022
Планетарный А-индекс Ap: 022
Вчерашнее значение числа солнечных пятен (International Sunspot Number): 261,
получено на основе анализа результатов 23 станций наблюдения.
Прошедшие события на Солнце:
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES
01 1109 1137 1141 S16W80 M4.1 SF 37/3768
01 1141 1147 1151 S16W80 M4.1 SF ///3772
01 1604 1615 1619 S05W53 M1.0 SF 30/3764
01 1633 1637 1644 S08W41 M1.3 SF 35/3765
01 1722 1729 1734 S03E63 M1.3 SF ///3774
01 2012 2022 2032 S13E63 M1.2 SF ///3774
01 2300 2308 2317 S21E37 M1.4 SF ///3772
02 0154 0201 0208 ////// M1.0 35/3765
02 0317 0325 0331 ////// M1.1 ///3772
02 0353 0358 0403 ////// M1.1 ///3773 III/1
02 0423 0455 0535 ////// M7.4 /////// IV/1
02 0751 0759 0803 S08W48 M2.1 SF 35/3765 III/1
02 0908 0916 0928 S26E32 M1.2 SF ///3772
02 0945 0951 0955 S06W57 M1.6 SN 32/3766