QRZ.RU EXPRESS от 5 августа 2024

Опубликовано: 04 августа 2024 в 1231 UTC
SIDC URSIGRAM 40804
Состояние солнечной активности на 04 августа 2024, 1230UT
Прогноз SIDC
Солнечные вспышки. Ожидаются вспышки класса M (вероятность >=50%)
Геомагнитное поле: Возмущенное (A>=20, K=4)
Солнечные протоны: Ожидается увеличение возмущенности (уровни активности повысятся,
но точного числового прогноза нет)
Прогноз на 04 августа 2024: Солнечный поток в диапазоне 10см: 242 / AP-индекс: 011
Прогноз на 05 августа 2024: Солнечный поток в диапазоне 10см: 240 / AP-индекс: 006
Прогноз на 06 августа 2024: Солнечный поток в диапазоне 10см: 238 / AP-индекс: 005
Комментарий (на английском языке): Solar Active Regions and flaring: Solar flaring activity over the last 24 hours has been at high levels, with ten M-class flares. The strongest flare was an M7.3 flare peaking at 18:39 UTC on August 03, from NOAA AR 3775 (beta-gamma). There are currently twelve numbered active regions on the solar disk. The most complex is NOAA AR 3772 (beta-gamma-delta). The clustered ARs 3763, 3764, 3765, 3766, 3770 and 3773 are currently rotating or have rotated behind the west limb, but may still exhibit flaring activity. NOAA AR 3778 is currently rotating on disk from the east limb. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares expected and a chance for X-class flares. Coronal mass ejections: Multiple filament and prominence eruptions were observed in AIA 304 data, but no associated coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in the available coronagraph imagery. The most important events were: a filament eruption around 12:15 UTC on August 03 in the south hemisphere, near the central meridian; a second filament eruption around 13:49 UTC on August 03 near NOAA AR 3777; a third filament eruption around 00:20 UTC on August 04, near NOAA AR 3775; a large prominence eruption around 04:42 UTC on August 04, in the southwest limb. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery. Coronal holes: A negative polarity coronal hole has emerged near the equator, southeast of the central meridian. Solar wind: The solar wind conditions were enhanced early on August 04 due to a suspected arrival of a glancing blow from a coronal mass ejection (CME) observed on July 31. Speed values reached a maximum of around 480 km/s and the interplanetary magnetic field a maximum of 15 nT. The Bz component reached -15 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominantly in the positive sector, switching to negative around 09:00 UTC on August 04. Mostly slow solar wind conditions are expected over the next 24 hours, with some enhancements still possible due to the potential arrival of a second glancing blow from the CME observed at 18:48 UTC on July 31. Geomagnetism: Geomagnetic conditions globally reached minor storm levels (Kp 5-) between 06:00-09:00 UTC on August 04, due to the suspected arrival of the glancing blow from a coronal mass ejection (CME) observed on July 31. Geomagnetic conditions locally reached active levels (K BEL 4) between 07:00-10:00 UTC on August 04. Mostly unsettled to active conditions are expected globally and locally over the next 24 hours, due to the potential arrival of a second glancing blow from the CME observed at 18:48 UTC on July 31. Proton flux levels: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the threshold level over the next 24 hours, pending new eruptive activity from the active regions near the west limb and the active regions clustered around NOAA AR 3766. Electron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the threshold level in the last 24 hours and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence is presently at normal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.Сегодняшнее значение числа солнечных пятен (International Sunspot Number): 233,
получено на основе анализа результатов 13 станций наблюдения.
Солнечные индексы за 03 Aug 2024
Число Вольфа по данным обсерватории Катания (IT9): ///
Солнечный поток в диапазоне 10см: 245
A-индекс по данным обсерватории Chambon-la-Foret (F): 019
A-индекс по данным обсерватории Wingst (DL): 012
Планетарный А-индекс Ap: 011
Вчерашнее значение числа солнечных пятен (International Sunspot Number): 222,
получено на основе анализа результатов 24 станций наблюдения.
Прошедшие события на Солнце:
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES
03 1326 1343 1355 S09E44 M1.8 2N ///3774
03 1649 1654 1658 ////// M2.8 ///3770 VI/2
03 1713 1726 1734 ////// M1.9 32/3766
03 1829 1839 1844 ////// M7.3 ///3775 III/1
03 1917 1930 1943 ////// M5.4 /////// VI/1
04 0145 0159 0217 ////// M1.4 ///////
04 0935 0944 0948 ////// M1.2 ///3765
04 0948 1001 1003 ////// M1.1 ///////
04 1003 1008 1012 ////// M1.4 /////// III/1
04 1027 1050 1124 S11W66 M1.9 SF ///3765