QRZ.RU EXPRESS от 10 декабря 2025

Опубликовано: 09 декабря 2025 в 1234 UTC
SIDC URSIGRAM 51209
Состояние солнечной активности на 09 декабря 2025, 1232UT
Прогноз SIDC
Солнечные вспышки. Ожидаются вспышки класса M (вероятность >=50%)
Геомагнитное поле: Возмущенное (A>=20, K=4)
Солнечные протоны: Ожидается увеличение возмущенности (уровни активности повысятся,
но точного числового прогноза нет)
Прогноз на 09 декабря 2025: Солнечный поток в диапазоне 10см: 185 / AP-индекс: 022
Прогноз на 10 декабря 2025: Солнечный поток в диапазоне 10см: 184 / AP-индекс: 010
Прогноз на 11 декабря 2025: Солнечный поток в диапазоне 10см: 183 / AP-индекс: 020
Комментарий (на английском языке): Solar Active Regions and flaring: Solar flaring activity was high over the past 24 hours, with five M-class flares. The strongest flare was an M3.1 flare (SIDC Flare 6350) peaking at 21:17 UTC on December 8, which was associated with SIDC Sunspot Group 709 (NOAA Active Region 4294, magnetic type beta-gamma-delta). There are currently nine numbered active regions on the solar disk. The most complex one is SIDC Sunspot Group 709 (NOAA Active Region 4294). SIDC Sunspot Groups 719, 720 (both magnetic type beta) have emerged in the southeast quadrant. SIDC Sunspot Group 621 (NOAA Active Region 4295) has decayed into a plage region. The solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares very likely and a small chance for X-class flares. Coronal mass ejections: A coronal mass ejection (SIDC CME 607) was observed in LASCO/C2 coronagraph data starting at 22:36 UTC on December 08. The CME is directed primarily to the west from the Earth's perspective and is associated with the M1.2 flare (SIDC Flare 6344), peaking at 22:28 UTC on December 08, associated with SIDC Sunspot Group 687 (NOAA Active Region 4299). While the bulk of the ejecta is expected to miss Earth, a glancing blow could be possible from late on December 11. Further analysis is ongoing to better estimate its impact. Solar wind: Over the past 24 hours, the solar wind parameters (ACE) reflected mostly slow solar wind conditions. Speed values varied between 350 km/s and 400 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field values were mostly stable around 7 nT until 08:00 UTC on December 09 when they increased up to 9 nT, due to a possible ICME arrival. The Bz component varied between 0 nT and -5 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field angle was mostly in the negative sector. Enhanced solar wind conditions are possible over the next 24 hours due to the ongoing ICME influence Geomagnetism: Geomagnetic conditions globally and locally were mostly at quiet levels (NOAA Kp 1 to 2, K BEL 1 to 2). Quiet to active conditions (NOAA Kp 1 to 4), with a small chance of minor storm conditions due to the ongoing ICME influence, are expected over the next 24 hours. Proton flux levels: Over the past 24 hours, the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was enhanced but remained below the 10 pfu threshold. The 10 MeV GOES proton flux is expected to remain so over the next days, with chances for further enhancements. Electron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 18 and GOES 19 was close to the 1000 pfu threshold but remained mostly below it in the last 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain around the 1000 pfu threshold levels in the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence is presently at moderate levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.Сегодняшнее значение числа солнечных пятен (International Sunspot Number): 157,
получено на основе анализа результатов 09 станций наблюдения.
Солнечные индексы за 08 Dec 2025
Число Вольфа по данным обсерватории Катания (IT9): ///
Солнечный поток в диапазоне 10см: 186
A-индекс по данным обсерватории Chambon-la-Foret (F): 003
A-индекс по данным обсерватории Wingst (DL): 001
Планетарный А-индекс Ap: 001
Вчерашнее значение числа солнечных пятен (International Sunspot Number): 165,
получено на основе анализа результатов 09 станций наблюдения.
Прошедшие события на Солнце:
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES
08 1242 1305 1321 S17W48 M1.0 SF 21/4294
08 2113 2117 2125 N28W07 M3.1 SF 21/4294
08 2204 2228 2245 N22W27 M1.2 SN 24/4299
09 0037 0058 0117 ////// M2.0 24/4299
09 0134 0138 0142 ////// M1.1 21/4294 II/2
09 0741 0747 0751 S26E45 M1.6 SF 21/4294 VI/2III/2