QRZ.RU EXPRESS от 9 декабря 2025

Опубликовано: 08 декабря 2025 в 1249 UTC
SIDC URSIGRAM 51208
Состояние солнечной активности на 08 декабря 2025, 1248UT
Прогноз SIDC
Солнечные вспышки. Ожидаются вспышки класса M (вероятность >=50%)
Геомагнитное поле: : Moderate (ISES: Major) magstorm expected (A>=50 or K=6)
Солнечные протоны: Ожидается увеличение возмущенности (уровни активности повысятся,
но точного числового прогноза нет)
Прогноз на 08 декабря 2025: Солнечный поток в диапазоне 10см: 196 / AP-индекс: 007
Прогноз на 09 декабря 2025: Солнечный поток в диапазоне 10см: 198 / AP-индекс: 055
Прогноз на 10 декабря 2025: Солнечный поток в диапазоне 10см: 200 / AP-индекс: 013
Комментарий (на английском языке): Solar Active Regions and flaring: Solar flaring activity was high over the past 24 hours, with one X-class flare and three M-class flares. The strongest flare was an X1.1 flare (SIDC Flare 6337) peaking at 05:01 UTC on December 8, which was associated with SIDC Sunspot Group 713 (NOAA Active Region 4298, magnetic type beta). There are currently eight numbered active regions on the solar disk. The most complex one is SIDC Sunspot Group 709 (NOAA Active Region 4294) with magnetic type beta-gamma-delta. SIDC Sunspot Group 718 (magnetic type beta-gamma) has emerged in the north hemisphere, east of SIDC Sunspot Group 687 (NOAA Active Region 4299, magnetic type beta-delta). The solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares very likely and a small chance for X-class flares. Coronal mass ejections: A wide Coronal Mass Ejection (SIDC CME 606), was observed in LASCO/C2 and C3 coronagraph imagery starting from around 05:20 UTC on December 08, lifting off the west limb. It is most likely associated with the X1.1 flare (SIDC Flare 6337) that peaked at 05:01 UTC on December 8. Preliminary analysis indicates that it will not impact Earth. Further analysis is ongoing. No other Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery. Solar wind: Over the past 24 hours, the solar wind parameters (ACE) were gradually returning to the slow solar wind regime. Speed values decreased from approximately 500 km/s to the current value of approximately 350 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field values decreased from 10 nT to 7 nT. The Bz component varied between 8 nT and 1 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field angle was mostly in the negative sector. Enhanced solar wind conditions are possible over the next 24 hours, due to the expected arrival of the ICME associated with the Coronal Mass Ejection (SIDC CME 605) observed around 19:24 UTC on December 06. Geomagnetism: Geomagnetic conditions globally and locally were mostly at quiet levels (NOAA Kp 1 to 2, K BEL 1 to 2). Moderate to major storm conditions (NOAA Kp 6 to 7), with small chances of severe geomagnetic conditions, are expected over the next 24 hours due to the anticipated arrival of the ICME associated with the Coronal Mass Ejection (SIDC CME 605) observed around 19:24 UTC on December 06. Proton flux levels: Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was enhanced but remained below the 10 pfu threshold. The 10 MeV GOES proton flux is expected to remain so over the next days, with chances for further enhancements. Electron fluxes at GEO: During the last 24 hours, the greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 19 was above the 1000 pfu threshold until 19:00 UTC on December 07. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 18 was above the 1000 pfu threshold until 02:00 UTC on December 08. The 24-hour electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to gradually return to normal levels over the next 24 hours.Сегодняшнее значение числа солнечных пятен (International Sunspot Number): 168,
получено на основе анализа результатов 06 станций наблюдения.
Солнечные индексы за 07 Dec 2025
Число Вольфа по данным обсерватории Катания (IT9): ///
Солнечный поток в диапазоне 10см: 194
A-индекс по данным обсерватории Chambon-la-Foret (F): 006
A-индекс по данным обсерватории Wingst (DL): 007
Планетарный А-индекс Ap: 008
Вчерашнее значение числа солнечных пятен (International Sunspot Number): 161,
получено на основе анализа результатов 05 станций наблюдения.
Прошедшие события на Солнце:
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES
08 0033 0036 0039 S15W30 M2.0 1 21/4294
07 2356 0012 0023 ////// M2.4 24/4299
08 0449 0501 0504 S14W52 X1.1 2B 17/4298 III/3
08 0640 0654 0704 N22W09 M1.8 1N 24/4299 III/2