QRZ.RU EXPRESS от 23 июля 2024

Опубликовано: 22 июля 2024 в 1253 UTC
SIDC URSIGRAM 40722
Состояние солнечной активности на 22 июля 2024, 1251UT
Прогноз SIDC
Солнечные вспышки. Ожидаются вспышки класса M (вероятность >=50%)
Геомагнитное поле: Спокойное состояние (A<20 and K<4)
Солнечные протоны: Спокойное состояние
Прогноз на 22 июля 2024: Солнечный поток в диапазоне 10см: 205 / AP-индекс: 010
Прогноз на 23 июля 2024: Солнечный поток в диапазоне 10см: 204 / AP-индекс: 011
Прогноз на 24 июля 2024: Солнечный поток в диапазоне 10см: 200 / AP-индекс: 008
Комментарий (на английском языке): Solar Active Regions and flaring: The solar flaring activity was at high level during the last 24 hours, with several C-class flares and six M-class flares. The strongest flare was GOES M3.9 flare from NOAA active region (AR) 3762 which peaked at 04:04 UTC on Jul 22. During the flare, the source region (AR 3762) of the flare had beta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. Apart from NOAA AR 3762, NOAA AR 3757 (beta configuration) and NOAA AR 3744(beta configuration) also produced M-class flares. The NOAA AR 3751 has the most complex magnetic configuration (beta-gamma-delta), but it has only produced few C-class flares. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels over the next 24 hours possibly with few M-class flares and a low chance for isolated X-class flares. Coronal mass ejections: A halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was first observed in the SOHO/LASCO C2 field of view around 16:28 UTC on Jul 21. CME was associated with a M1.0 flare from NOAA AR 3757 (N15 E20) and an eruption of a very twisted filament with the main propagation direction towards North. The first estimation shows projected speed of the CME to be about 730 km/s which brings expected arrival time at Earth to be around 05:00 UTC on Jul 24. A M1.4 flare occurred with a peak time 09:35 UTC on Jul 22, produced by NOAA AR 3744. Associated Type II radio emissions were detected at 09:26 UTC on Jul 22, during the flaring activity. The associated CME will possibly have Earth directed components. Further analysis will be carried out once the corresponding LASCO coronagraph images are availble. No other Earth-directed CMEs were detected in the available coronagraph observations during the last 24 hour. Solar wind: Earth is presently within the slow solar wind regime. The solar wind speed ranged between 280 km/s and 330 km/s. The North-South component (Bz) ranged between -6 and 2 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field ranged between 2 nT and 7 nT. Slow solar wind conditions are expected to continue over the next 24 hours. Geomagnetism: Geomagnetic conditions were globally and locally at quiet to unsettled conditions (NOAA Kp and K BEL 1 to 3). Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected in the next 24 hours. Proton flux levels: The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux showed a small enhancement starting around 09:30 UTC on Jul 22, associated with flaring activities from NOAA AR 3744 and a type II radio burst (with a possibly associated coronal mass ejection). Any major eruption from the same active region, during the next 24 hours, could be possibly associated with a proton event. Electron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the coming 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence is presently at low level and it is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.Сегодняшнее значение числа солнечных пятен (International Sunspot Number): 188,
получено на основе анализа результатов 17 станций наблюдения.
Солнечные индексы за 21 Jul 2024
Число Вольфа по данным обсерватории Катания (IT9): ///
Солнечный поток в диапазоне 10см: 198
A-индекс по данным обсерватории Chambon-la-Foret (F): 008
A-индекс по данным обсерватории Wingst (DL): 006
Планетарный А-индекс Ap: 005
Вчерашнее значение числа солнечных пятен (International Sunspot Number): 218,
получено на основе анализа результатов 18 станций наблюдения.
Прошедшие события на Солнце:
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES
21 1618 1631 1659 ////// M1.0 20/3757 III/2II/2
21 2321 2328 2334 N15W86 M3.2 SF 96/3744
22 0327 0333 0337 S14E56 M1.4 SF 26/3762 VI/1
22 0355 0404 0408 S15E56 M3.9 SN 26/3762
22 0414 0434 0443 S12E54 M1.9 1F 26/3762
22 0931 0935 0940 S13E45 M1.4 SF 26/3762 VI/1III/1V/2II/2