QRZ.RU EXPRESS от 18 июля 2024

Опубликовано: 17 июля 2024 в 1232 UTC
SIDC URSIGRAM 40717
Состояние солнечной активности на 17 июля 2024, 1230UT
Прогноз SIDC
Солнечные вспышки. Ожидаются вспышки класса M (вероятность >=50%)
Геомагнитное поле: Возмущенное (A>=20, K=4)
Солнечные протоны: Спокойное состояние
Прогноз на 17 июля 2024: Солнечный поток в диапазоне 10см: 242 / AP-индекс: 008
Прогноз на 18 июля 2024: Солнечный поток в диапазоне 10см: 235 / AP-индекс: 018
Прогноз на 19 июля 2024: Солнечный поток в диапазоне 10см: 230 / AP-индекс: 013
Комментарий (на английском языке): Solar Active Regions and flaring: Solar flaring activity was high during the past 24 hours with an X1.9 flare emitted by NOAA Active Region (AR) 3738 (magnetic configuration Beta-Gamma-Delta) at 16 Jul 13:26 UTC. Five M-class flares were also detected as associated with four AR. NOAA AR 3743 (magnetic configuration Beta, Catania sunspot group no 93) produced an M5.0 at 17 Jul 06:39 UTC and an M3.4 at 17 Jul 07:08 UTC. NOAA AR 3744 (magnetic configuration Beta, Catania sunspot group no 96) registered an M1.9 at 16 Jul 22:06 UTC and NOAA AR 3753 (magnetic configuration Beta, Catania sunspot group no 8) is associated with an M1.6 at 16 Jul 21:24 UTC. NOAA AR 3738 produced the more recent M-class flare, an M1.2 at 17 Jul 09:45 UTC. In the next 24 hours M-class flaring activity is expected mostly from NOAA AR 3743, 3738, 3751, or 3753 and there is a chance of an isolated, low- intensity X-class flare. Coronal mass ejections: No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) were observed in the last 24 hours. A partial halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) seen in SOHO/LASCO C-2 images as launched at 16/7 13:48 UTC is associated with NOAA active region 3738 and the X1.9 flare of 13:26 UTC, hence not expected to be Earth-directed. Solar wind: Solar Wind (SW) conditions returned to the slow SW regime during the past 24 hours. The SW speed varied between 330 and 420 km/s, while the total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) dropped from 15 to 3 nT during the past 24 hours. The North-South magnetic component (Bz) fluctuated between -7 and 13 nT, while the interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was mostly directed away from the Sun in the past 24 hours. A High Speed Stream (HSS) is expected to become geo-effective in the next 24 hours and cause a significant disturbance. Geomagnetism: Global and local geomagnetic conditions were mostly quiet during the past 24 hours, with short intervals of unsettled conditions (NOAA Kp 3- and K BEL 3 at 16 Jul 15:00-18:00 UTC and K BEL 3 at 17 Jul 09:00-12:00 UTC). A High Speed Stream (HSS) is expected to arrive in the next 24 hours and cause levels to increase to active and possibly minor storm conditions. Proton flux levels: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so. Electron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was at nominal levels during the last 24 hours and is expected to remain at these levels during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at very low levels during the past 24 hours and is expected to remain at these levels for the following 24 hours.Сегодняшнее значение числа солнечных пятен (International Sunspot Number): 276,
получено на основе анализа результатов 18 станций наблюдения.
Солнечные индексы за 16 Jul 2024
Число Вольфа по данным обсерватории Катания (IT9): 331
Солнечный поток в диапазоне 10см: 242
A-индекс по данным обсерватории Chambon-la-Foret (F): 014
A-индекс по данным обсерватории Wingst (DL): 016
Планетарный А-индекс Ap: 015
Вчерашнее значение числа солнечных пятен (International Sunspot Number): 287,
получено на основе анализа результатов 23 станций наблюдения.
Прошедшие события на Солнце:
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES
16 1311 1326 1336 S06W85 X1.9 1B 85/3738 III/1II/3IV/2
16 2106 2124 2136 N11W34 M1.6 1N 08/3753
16 2146 2206 2217 N18W10 M1.9 1N 96/3744 III/2II/2
17 0626 0639 0701 S10W31 M5.0 2B 93/3743 III/1II/1
17 0701 0708 0713 N09W39 M3.4 SF 08/3753 VI/2II/1IV/1
17 0926 0945 1010 S10W83 M1.2 SF ///3738