QRZ.RU EXPRESS от 17 июля 2024

Опубликовано: 16 июля 2024 в 1231 UTC
SIDC URSIGRAM 40716
Состояние солнечной активности на 16 июля 2024, 1230UT
Прогноз SIDC
Солнечные вспышки. Ожидаются вспышки класса M (вероятность >=50%)
Геомагнитное поле: Спокойное состояние (A<20 and K<4)
Солнечные протоны: Спокойное состояние
Прогноз на 16 июля 2024: Солнечный поток в диапазоне 10см: 243 / AP-индекс: 012
Прогноз на 17 июля 2024: Солнечный поток в диапазоне 10см: 240 / AP-индекс: 008
Прогноз на 18 июля 2024: Солнечный поток в диапазоне 10см: 235 / AP-индекс: 016
Комментарий (на английском языке): Solar Active Regions and flaring: Solar flaring activity was moderate during the past 24 hours with two M-class flares detected. NOAA Active Region (AR) 3744 (magnetic configuration Beta, Catania sunspot group no 96) emitted an M1.4 flare at 16 Jul 03:01 UTC and NOAA AR 3753 (magnetic configuration Beta, Catania sunspot group no 8) an M3.6 at 16 Jul 07:37 UTC. NOAA AR 3738 (magnetic configuration Beta-Gamma-Delta, Catania sunspot group no 85) retained its magnetic complexity but only emitted a C4 flare at 15 Jul 16:17 UTC. NOAA AR 3751 (magnetic configuration Beta-Gamma, Catania sunspot group no 12) increased in size and complexity and produced the third brightest event of the past 24 hours, a C7 flare at 15 Jul 20:08 UTC. For the next 24 hours isolated M-class flare(s) are expected, either from NOAA AR 3751, 3753, 3744, or 3738. Coronal mass ejections: No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) were observed in the last 24 hours. Coronal holes: The negative polarity, northern Coronal Hole (CH) continued its crossing of the central meridian during the past 24 hours. Solar wind: During the past 24 hours the Solar Wind (SW) conditions featured the arrival of a glancing blow from a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) at 15 Jul 21:30 UTC. The SW speed increased from 290 to 390 km/s, while the total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) increased from 1 to 18 nT as a result of the arrival. The North-South magnetic component (Bz) fluctuated between -10 and 13 nT, while the interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was mostly directed away from the Sun before the event and turned to mostly directed towards the Sun after the arrival. The SW conditions are expected to return to the slow SW regime in the next 24 hours. Geomagnetism: During the past 24 hours global geomagnetic conditions reached unsettled levels (NOAA Kp 3 at 16 Jul 00:00-03:00 UTC and Kp 3+ at 16 Jul 03:00-06:00 UTC) because of a glancing blow delivered by a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME). Locally the impart was stronger as active conditions were registered (K BEL 4 at 16 Jul 00:00-03:00 UTC). As the glancing blow is expected to wane in the next 24 hours, only unsettled to quiet conditions are expected to register both globally and locally. Proton flux levels: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so. Electron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was at nominal levels during the last 24 hours and is expected to remain at these levels during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at very low levels during the past 24 hours and is expected to remain at these levels for the following 24 hours.Сегодняшнее значение числа солнечных пятен (International Sunspot Number): 285,
получено на основе анализа результатов 16 станций наблюдения.
Солнечные индексы за 15 Jul 2024
Число Вольфа по данным обсерватории Катания (IT9): 275
Солнечный поток в диапазоне 10см: 233
A-индекс по данным обсерватории Chambon-la-Foret (F): 019
A-индекс по данным обсерватории Wingst (DL): 008
Планетарный А-индекс Ap: 008
Вчерашнее значение числа солнечных пятен (International Sunspot Number): 242,
получено на основе анализа результатов 26 станций наблюдения.
Прошедшие события на Солнце:
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES
15 1008 1013 1019 S08W64 M1.9 SF 85/3738
16 0249 0301 0322 N16E02 M1.4 1N 96/3744
16 0724 0737 0750 N11W27 M3.6 1B 08/3753 III/1