QRZ.RU EXPRESS от 11 июля 2024

Опубликовано: 10 июля 2024 в 1240 UTC
SIDC URSIGRAM 40710
Состояние солнечной активности на 10 июля 2024, 1239UT
Прогноз SIDC
Солнечные вспышки. Ожидаются вспышки класса M (вероятность >=50%)
Геомагнитное поле: Спокойное состояние (A<20 and K<4)
Солнечные протоны: Спокойное состояние
Прогноз на 10 июля 2024: Солнечный поток в диапазоне 10см: 178 / AP-индекс: 006
Прогноз на 11 июля 2024: Солнечный поток в диапазоне 10см: 177 / AP-индекс: 015
Прогноз на 12 июля 2024: Солнечный поток в диапазоне 10см: 177 / AP-индекс: 010
Комментарий (на английском языке): Solar Active Regions and flaring: Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at moderate levels with background C-class flaring and two low M-class flares. The strongest activity was an M1.5-flare, peak time 05:59 UTC on July 10, associated with the largest and most complex active region on the visible disc, NOAA AR 3738 (beta-gamma). This region remains the main contributor to the flaring activity on disc. Three new active regions near the east limb have been numbered, namely NOAA AR 3742 (beta), NOAA AR 3743 (beta) and NOAA AR 3744 (alpha). They have showing low levels of activity. Two other regions appear emerging near the south-east limb together with a returning region (possibly previous NOAA AR 3713). The remaining active regions are have remained mostly stable and quiet. The solar flaring activity is likely to remain at low to moderate levels over the coming days with 60% chance for M-class flaring and 10% chances for isolated X-class flaring. Coronal mass ejections: No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours. Coronal holes: An equatorial to mid-latitude positive polarity coronal hole is currently residing on the central meridian. The high speed stream emanating from it might arrive to Earth on July 13. Solar wind: Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) were indicative of background slow solar wind conditions. The solar wind velocity weakly varied between 358 km/s and 443 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field was weak with a maximum value of 6.5 nT and a minimum Bz of -5 nT. The B field phi angle was switching between the negative and positive sectors, but was predominantly negative (directed towards the Sun). The solar wind conditions are expected to register weak enhancements later on July 10 and July 11 with expected mild high speed stream (HSS) arrivals. More notable disturbances in the near-Earth solar wind are expected on July 13th with anticipated faster HSS arrival. Geomagnetism: The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were globally quiet and locally quiet to unsettled over Belgium. Quiet to active conditions are expected July 10 and July 11 with anticipated high speed stream arrivals. Predominantly quiet to unsettled conditions are anticipated for July 12th and minor storm levels are possible on July 13th. Proton flux levels: Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at background levels and is expected to remain so over the next days. Electron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 16 and GOES 18 was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the upcoming days. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to remain so in the next days.Сегодняшнее значение числа солнечных пятен (International Sunspot Number): 185,
получено на основе анализа результатов 14 станций наблюдения.
Солнечные индексы за 09 Jul 2024
Число Вольфа по данным обсерватории Катания (IT9): 173
Солнечный поток в диапазоне 10см: 180
A-индекс по данным обсерватории Chambon-la-Foret (F): 010
A-индекс по данным обсерватории Wingst (DL): 008
Планетарный А-индекс Ap: 007
Вчерашнее значение числа солнечных пятен (International Sunspot Number): 140,
получено на основе анализа результатов 26 станций наблюдения.
Прошедшие события на Солнце:
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES
10 0544 0559 0609 ////// M1.5 85/3738
10 0926 0945 0953 ////// M1.3 85/3738