QRZ.RU EXPRESS от 23 марта 2021

Опубликовано: 2021 Mar 22 1231 UTC

SIDC URSIGRAM 10322
Состояние солнечной активности на 22 Mar 2021, 1230UT
Прогноз сделан для периода с 1230UT, 22 Mar 2021 до 24 Mar 2021)
Солнечная активность: очень низкая. Вероятность вспышек C-класса менее 50%
Геомагнитное поле: Возмущенное (A>=20, K=4)
Протонные вспышки: Спокойное состояние
Прогноз на 22 Mar 2021: плотность потока солнечного излучения: 077, A-индекс: 012
Прогноз на 23 Mar 2021: плотность потока солнечного излучения: 079, A-индекс: 031
Прогноз на 24 Mar 2021: плотность потока солнечного излучения: 080, A-индекс: 031

Комментарий (на английском языке): Solar activity was at very low levels in the past 24 hours. Catania group 81 (previously numbered by NOAA as AR 2810) has remained a plage region and produced B-class flares. NOAA AR 2811 remains magnetically simple and has produced some low-B class flares. A new active region is expected to rotate unto the solar the disk in the next 24 hours. Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels, with a small chance of a C-class flare. A Corona Mass Ejection (CME) was observed by COR2/STEREO at 22th March, 01:10 UT. It has an Earth-directed component and its speed is estimated to 250-300 km/s. It is expected to reach Earth around the 26th March. A more accurate estimation will be possible when LASCO/C2 data become available. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux exceeded the 1000 pfu threshold several times in the past 24 hours and is expected to exceed the 1000 pfu threshold again in the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at moderate levels in the last 24 hours and is expected to remain at moderate levels in the next 24 hours. Solar wind conditions reflected a fast solar wind regime over the last 24 hours. The solar wind speed increased further and ranged between 470 km/s the 680 km/s. The total interplanetary magnetic field varied between -7.5 nT and 5.8 nT. The magnetic field phi angle was predominantly in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun). The solar wind parameters are expected to remain typical of the fast solar wind regime over the next 24 hours. Geomagnetic conditions varied a lot from quiet to minor storm levels (NOAA Kp and local K Dourbes: 1-5) over the past 24 hours. For the next 24 hours active conditions are expected. The CME first observed on the 20th March is expected to arrive at 23rd March or 24th March.Сегодняшнее значение числа солнечных пятен (International Sunspot Number): 022,
получено на основе анализа результатов 12 станций наблюдения.
Солнечные индексы за 21 Mar 2021
Число Вольфа по данным обсерватории Катания (IT9): ///
Плотность потока излучения: 077
A-индекс по данным обсерватории Chambon-la-Foret (F): 035
A-индекс по данным обсерватории Wingst (DL): 024
Планетарный А-индекс Ap: 026
Вчерашнее значение числа солнечных пятен (International Sunspot Number): 011,
получено на основе анализа результатов 13 станций наблюдения.
Прошедшие события на Солнце:
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES

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