QRZ.RU EXPRESS от 22 марта 2021

Опубликовано: 2021 Mar 21 1231 UTC

SIDC URSIGRAM 10321
Состояние солнечной активности на 21 Mar 2021, 1231UT
Прогноз сделан для периода с 1230UT, 21 Mar 2021 до 23 Mar 2021)
Солнечная активность: очень низкая. Вероятность вспышек C-класса менее 50%
Геомагнитное поле: Возмущенное (A>=20, K=4)
Протонные вспышки: Спокойное состояние
Прогноз на 21 Mar 2021: плотность потока солнечного излучения: 081, A-индекс: 017
Прогноз на 22 Mar 2021: плотность потока солнечного излучения: 080, A-индекс: 018
Прогноз на 23 Mar 2021: плотность потока солнечного излучения: 082, A-индекс: 016

Комментарий (на английском языке): Solar activity was at very low levels in the past 24 hours. NOAA Active Region (AR) 2810 (Catania group 81) has decayed to a plage region. A new active region, NOAA AR 2811, has rotated onto the solar disk near N20E70 and has produced some low-level B-class flaring. Another active region is also expected to rotate onto the disk in the next 24 hours. Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels, with a small chance of a C-class flare. The Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) first reported on Mar 20, seen in LASCO-C2 and STEREO-COR2 coronagraph imagery from 01:45 UT and attributed to a filament eruption in the south east quadrant, has been further analysed and a possible glancing blow at Earth is predicted on Mar 23 to early on Mar 24. No other Earth-directed CMEs have been observed in the available coronagraph data. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained just below the 1000 pfu threshold during the past 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to increase and likely exceed the 1000 pfu threshold for a short period during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels in the last 24 hours and is expected to be at nominal to moderate levels in the next 24 hours. Solar wind conditions remained enhanced over the past 24 hours as the Earth remained under the influence of the high-speed stream associated with the negative polarity coronal hole, which crossed the central meridian on Mar 17. The solar wind speed ranged between 550 and 680 km/s. The total interplanetary magnetic field varied between 2 and 7 nT, with a minimum recorded Bz value of -5 nT. The magnetic field phi angle was predominantly in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun). The solar wind parameters are expected to remain elevated on Mar 21 and Mar 22, as the Earth remains under the influence of the high-speed stream. A glancing blow from the CME on Mar 20 may also cause an enhancement in the solar wind on Mar 23. Geomagnetic conditions were at quiet to active levels (NOAA Kp and local K Dourbes 1-4) over the past 24 hours. Quiet to active conditions are expected for the next 48 hours, with an isolate period of minor geomagnetic storms possible in response to any longer periods of negative Bz.Сегодняшнее значение числа солнечных пятен (International Sunspot Number): 012,
получено на основе анализа результатов 05 станций наблюдения.
Солнечные индексы за 20 Mar 2021
Число Вольфа по данным обсерватории Катания (IT9): ///
Плотность потока излучения: 080
A-индекс по данным обсерватории Chambon-la-Foret (F): 048
A-индекс по данным обсерватории Wingst (DL): 025
Планетарный А-индекс Ap: 030
Вчерашнее значение числа солнечных пятен (International Sunspot Number): 011,
получено на основе анализа результатов 28 станций наблюдения.
Прошедшие события на Солнце:
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES

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