QRZ.RU EXPRESS от 13 августа 2024

Опубликовано: 12 августа 2024 в 1231 UTC
SIDC URSIGRAM 40812
Состояние солнечной активности на 12 августа 2024, 1230UT
Прогноз SIDC
Солнечные вспышки. Ожидаются вспышки класса M (вероятность >=50%)
Геомагнитное поле: : Moderate (ISES: Major) magstorm expected (A>=50 or K=6)
Солнечные протоны: Спокойное состояние
Прогноз на 12 августа 2024: Солнечный поток в диапазоне 10см: 278 / AP-индекс: 032
Прогноз на 13 августа 2024: Солнечный поток в диапазоне 10см: 276 / AP-индекс: 030
Прогноз на 14 августа 2024: Солнечный поток в диапазоне 10см: 270 / AP-индекс: 013
Комментарий (на английском языке): Solar Active Regions and flaring: Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at moderate levels, with three M-class flares recorded. The largest flare was a M1.63-flare, with peak time 05:48 UTC on August 11 and is associated with active region NOAA AR 3777 (beta-gamma). The second largest M-class flare is a M1.26-flare, with peak time 00:18 UTC on August 12 and is associated with NOAA AR 3780 (beta-gamma-delta). Both these regions produced most of the flaring activity in the last 24 hours. There are currently 11 numbered active regions on the visible disk. NOAA AR 3780 (beta-gamma-delta) is the largest and most magnetically complex regions on disk. NOAA AR 3784 (beta-gamma-delta) and NOAA AR 3777 (beta-gamma) are also larger and more complex than the other regions currently on disk. NOAA AR 3788 (beta) has rotated on disk. NOAA AR 3774 has started to rotate over the western limb. The solar flaring activity is likely to be at moderate levels over the coming days with C-class flares expected, M-class flares very likely and a chance for an X-class flare. Coronal mass ejections: No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph images. Solar wind: Over the past 24 hours the solar wind conditions were under the influence of an ICME, likely from a CME from August 07 and a CME from August 08, associated with a X1.3-flare. The solar wind speed varied within 463 – 534 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field varied between 8 nT and 23 nT, with the Bz reaching a minimum value of -20 nT. The phi-angle was mainly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun) with periods in the negative sector. In the next 24 hours the solar wind conditions are expected to be disturbed, with possible ICME arrivals late on August 12 and early on August 13. Geomagnetism: Geomagnetic conditions have reached major storm levels globally (NOAA Kp 7) and moderate storm levels locally (K BEL 6) since 03:00 UTC on August 12 in response to the enhancement of the solar wind parameters and prolonged periods of soutward directed Bz component. Proton flux levels: Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at background levels and is expected to remain so over the next days. Electron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 16 was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the upcoming days. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to remain so in the next days.Сегодняшнее значение числа солнечных пятен (International Sunspot Number): 236,
получено на основе анализа результатов 23 станций наблюдения.
Солнечные индексы за 11 Aug 2024
Число Вольфа по данным обсерватории Катания (IT9): ///
Солнечный поток в диапазоне 10см: 282
A-индекс по данным обсерватории Chambon-la-Foret (F): 072
A-индекс по данным обсерватории Wingst (DL): 032
Планетарный А-индекс Ap: 034
Вчерашнее значение числа солнечных пятен (International Sunspot Number): 244,
получено на основе анализа результатов 28 станций наблюдения.
Прошедшие события на Солнце:
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES
11 1957 2018 2036 S09W58 M1.6 1F ///3777
11 2340 2358 0026 ////// M1.2 ///3780
12 0823 0848 0859 ////// M1.0 44/3777 VI/2