QRZ.RU EXPRESS от 9 августа 2024

Опубликовано: 08 августа 2024 в 1239 UTC
SIDC URSIGRAM 40808
Состояние солнечной активности на 08 августа 2024, 1238UT
Прогноз SIDC
Солнечные вспышки. Ожидаются вспышки класса M (вероятность >=50%)
Геомагнитное поле: Возмущенное (A>=20, K=4)
Солнечные протоны: Спокойное состояние
Прогноз на 08 августа 2024: Солнечный поток в диапазоне 10см: 325 / AP-индекс: 017
Прогноз на 09 августа 2024: Солнечный поток в диапазоне 10см: 335 / AP-индекс: 025
Прогноз на 10 августа 2024: Солнечный поток в диапазоне 10см: 340 / AP-индекс: 025
Комментарий (на английском языке): Solar Active Regions and flaring: Solar flaring activity was at moderate to high levels over the last 24 hours, with 5 M-class flares being recorded. The strongest was an M5 flare peaking at 18:54 UTC on August 07. This flare was associated with NOAA AR 3777 and also had an associated Type II radio emission recorded at 18:48 UTC. This region also produced 3 other M-class flares. NOAA AR 3774 produced an M4.5 flare peaking at 13:40 UTC. These two regions, NOAA AR 3774 (Beta-Gamma-Delta) and NOAA AR 3777 (Beta-Gamma- Delta), increased in size and complexity. NOAA AR 3779 decayed into a plage region. NOAA AR3780 (Beta-Gamma-Delta) is the largest and one of the most complex regions on the disk (beta gamma delta) but produced only C-class flares in the period. A new region emerged near 3781 and was numbered NOAA AR3783. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares expected and a chance for X-class flares. Coronal mass ejections: A faint halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) was observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 data, first seen around 14:36 UTC August 07. It is possible that this is a combination of a back side event as well as a CME associated with the M4.5 flare peaking at 13:40 UTC from NOAA 3774. A second slow CME directed to the south-east was observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 data from 19:00. This may be related to the M5 flare associated with NOAA AR3777. Analysis of these events are ongoing but initial analysis suggest that both could have an Earth directed component which may impact Earth from August 10. Solar wind: The solar wind conditions reflected a slow solar wind regime. The interplanetary magnetic field was mostly stable around 5 nT with a minimum value of -5nT. The solar wind speed ranged between 360 and 420 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominantly in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun). Generally slow solar wind conditions are expected for the next 24 hours, there is a small chance of minor enhancements in the solar wind speed and interplanetary magnetic field on August 08 to 09 due to the solar wind from the negative polarity coronal hole, which began to cross the central meridian on August 5, and a possible weak shock from the partial halo CME of August 05. Stronger enhancements are possible from August 10 due to possible influence of the combined CMEs of August 07. Geomagnetism: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly at quiet to unsettled levels with one isolated active interval measured locally (NOAA Kp 1-3 and Local K BEL 1-4). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be at unsettled to active levels in the next 24 hours, with possible minor storm conditions from August 10 in response to possible CME arrivals. Proton flux levels: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the 10pfu threshold level over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. Electron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu threshold. It is expected to remain below this threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence was at nominal levels. The electron fluence is expected remain at nominal levels over the next 24 hours.Сегодняшнее значение числа солнечных пятен (International Sunspot Number): 312,
получено на основе анализа результатов 17 станций наблюдения.
Солнечные индексы за 07 Aug 2024
Число Вольфа по данным обсерватории Катания (IT9): ///
Солнечный поток в диапазоне 10см: 303
A-индекс по данным обсерватории Chambon-la-Foret (F): 016
A-индекс по данным обсерватории Wingst (DL): 008
Планетарный А-индекс Ap: 008
Вчерашнее значение числа солнечных пятен (International Sunspot Number): 283,
получено на основе анализа результатов 23 станций наблюдения.
Прошедшие события на Солнце:
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES
07 1330 1350 1358 ////// M4.5 ///3774 II/2II/3I/2 3
07 1831 1854 1908 ////// M5.0 ///3777 II/2I/2 7
08 0049 0106 0115 ////// M2.1 F ///3777
08 0327 0441 0509 ////// M1.3 F ///3777 I/2II/2