QRZ.RU EXPRESS от 1 августа 2024

Опубликовано: 31 июля 2024 в 1231 UTC
SIDC URSIGRAM 40731
Состояние солнечной активности на 31 июля 2024, 1230UT
Прогноз SIDC
Солнечные вспышки. Ожидаются вспышки класса M (вероятность >=50%)
Геомагнитное поле: : Major (ISES: Severe) magstorm expected (A>=100 or K>=7)
Солнечные протоны: Ожидается увеличение возмущенности (уровни активности повысятся,
но точного числового прогноза нет)
Прогноз на 31 июля 2024: Солнечный поток в диапазоне 10см: 219 / AP-индекс: 024
Прогноз на 01 августа 2024: Солнечный поток в диапазоне 10см: 216 / AP-индекс: 048
Прогноз на 02 августа 2024: Солнечный поток в диапазоне 10см: 213 / AP-индекс: 016
Комментарий (на английском языке): Solar Active Regions and flaring: Solar flaring activity over the last 24 hours has been at high levels, with six M-class flares. The strongest flares were an M9.4 flare peaking at 19:38 UTC on July 30, associated with NOAA AR 3772 (beta) and an M7.7 flare peaking at 06:46 UTC on July 31, associated with NOAA AR 3768 (beta-gamma-delta). There are currently thirteen active regions on the solar disk. The most complex ones are NOAA ARs 3765 (beta-gamma-delta) and 3768 (evolved to magnetic type beta-gamma- delta). NOAA AR 3766 has decreased to magnetic type beta-gamma. NOAA AR 3772 (beta) has rotated on disk from the southeast limb. NOAA AR 3774 has rotated on disk from the east limb, near the equator. A new, currently unnumbered active region has rotated on disk from the east limb, in the northeast quadrant. NOAA 3773 (beta) has emerged in the southwest quadrant, west of NOAA AR 3764 and near the equator. NOAA AR 3762 is currently rotating behind the west limb. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares expected and a chance for X-class flares. Coronal mass ejections: Further analysis of the coronal mass ejection (CME) observed in LASCO/C2 coronagraph imagery around 13:36 UTC on July 29 suggests that a glancing blow arrival may be possible starting from late August 01, but may be indistinguishable from the expected halo or partial halo CME arrivals from July 28-29. A CME was observed in LASCO/C2 and LASCO/C3 coronagraph imagery around 20:00 UTC on July 30, lifting off the southeast limb. Its source region is expected to be just behind the east limb and it is not expected to have an Earth-directed component. A CME was observed in LASCO/C2 coronagraph imagery around 01:50 UTC on July 31, most likely associated with a filament eruption in the vicinity of NOAA AR 3773. It is not expected to have an Earth-directed component. A wide CME was observed in LASCO/C2 coronagraph imagery around 07:15 UTC on July 31, lifting off the southeast limb. It is probably associated with the M7.7 flare which peaked at 06:46 UTC on July 31, from NOAA AR 3768. It is not expected to have an Earth-directed component. Further analysis of this event is ongoing. No other Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery. Coronal holes: A northern, negative polarity coronal hole is still crossing the central meridian. A possible, mild high-speed stream associated with it could arrive at Earth starting from August 01, but may be indistinguishable from the expected coronal mass ejection (CME) arrivals. Solar wind: The solar wind conditions are returning to the slow solar wind regime, following the shock observed around 23:30 UTC on July 29. Speed values have decreased from 515 km/s to around 400 km/s and the interplanetary magnetic field is currently around 7 nT. The Bz component is mostly positive, with values between 1 nT and 5 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field angle was predominantly in the positive sector. Further enhancements in the solar wind conditions are expected over the next 24 hours due to the predicted arrival of several halo or partial halo CMEs observed on July 28-29. Geomagnetism: Geomagnetic conditions globally and locally were at active levels (NOAA Kp 4 and K BEL 4) around 12:00 UTC on July 30 as a result of the shock observed in the solar wind around 23:20 UTC on July 29. Geomagnetic conditions globally and locally gradually decreased to unsettled levels (NOAA Kp 3+ and K BEL 3) and are currently at quiet levels (NOAA Kp 2 and K BEL 2). Unsettled to moderate storm conditions (NOAA Kp 6) with possible major storm intervals (NOAA Kp 7) are expected globally and locally over the next 24 hours due to the predicted arrival of several halo or partial halo CMEs observed on July 28-29. Proton flux levels: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the threshold level over the next 24 hours, pending new eruptive activity from NOAA ARs 3762, 3764, 3765, 3766, 3768 and 3771. Electron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the threshold level in the last 24 hours and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence is presently at normal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.Сегодняшнее значение числа солнечных пятен (International Sunspot Number): 264,
получено на основе анализа результатов 17 станций наблюдения.
Солнечные индексы за 30 Jul 2024
Число Вольфа по данным обсерватории Катания (IT9): ///
Солнечный поток в диапазоне 10см: 220
A-индекс по данным обсерватории Chambon-la-Foret (F): 022
A-индекс по данным обсерватории Wingst (DL): 025
Планетарный А-индекс Ap: 025
Вчерашнее значение числа солнечных пятен (International Sunspot Number): 223,
получено на основе анализа результатов 29 станций наблюдения.
Прошедшие события на Солнце:
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES
30 1612 1628 1642 S08W27 M1.5 1F 32/3766
30 1910 1920 1925 S04W29 M1.9 SN 30/3764 V/3
30 1925 1938 2004 S24E64 M9.4 2N ///3772 V/3
31 0143 0150 0154 ////// M1.9 ///3773
31 0507 0523 0538 S04E83 M4.7 SF ///3774 VI/2
31 0628 0646 0658 ////// M7.7 37/3768 V/3III/3CTM/2