QRZ.RU EXPRESS от 30 июля 2024

Опубликовано: 29 июля 2024 в 1231 UTC
SIDC URSIGRAM 40729
Состояние солнечной активности на 29 июля 2024, 1230UT
Прогноз SIDC
Солнечные вспышки. Ожидаются вспышки класса M (вероятность >=50%)
Геомагнитное поле: Спокойное состояние (A<20 and K<4)
Солнечные протоны: Ожидается увеличение возмущенности (уровни активности повысятся,
но точного числового прогноза нет)
Прогноз на 29 июля 2024: Солнечный поток в диапазоне 10см: 219 / AP-индекс: 007
Прогноз на 30 июля 2024: Солнечный поток в диапазоне 10см: 224 / AP-индекс: 038
Прогноз на 31 июля 2024: Солнечный поток в диапазоне 10см: 229 / AP-индекс: 056
Комментарий (на английском языке): Solar Active Regions and flaring: Solar flaring activity over the last 24 hours has been at high levels, with four M-class flares and one X-class flare. The strongest flare was an X1.5 flare peaking at 02:37 UTC on July 29, most likely associated either with NOAA AR 3764 (beta) or 3766 (beta). There are currently ten active regions on the solar disk. The most complex ones are NOAA ARs 3762, 3765 and 3767 (all beta-gamma-delta). The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares expected and a chance for X-class flares. Coronal mass ejections: A halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in LASCO/C2 coronagraph imagery around 15:10 UTC on July 28. Preliminary analysis suggests a velocity of around 600 km/s and a possible arrival time at Earth late on July 30, due to the expected interaction with an earlier halo CME which left the Sun around 02:36 UTC on July 28. Another faint partial halo CME was first observed in LASCO/C2 coronagraph imagery around 02:40 UTC on July 29, most likely associated with the X1.5 flare peaking at 02:37 UTC on July 29. A related type II Radio emission was reported, starting at 02:36 UTC, with an estimated velocity of 535 km/s. This CME might arrive at the Earth starting from July 31 mixed with the previously expected CME arrivals. Further analysis for both eruptions is ongoing. Coronal holes: A northern, negative polarity coronal hole has started to cross the central meridian. A possible, mild high-speed stream associated with it could arrive at Earth starting from August 01. Solar wind: The Earth is inside the slow solar wind, with speed values ranging from 313 km/s to 434 km/s and an interplanetary magnetic field between 1.5 nT and 6.5 nT. The Bz component varied between -5.5 nT and 4.5 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominantly in the positive sector. Slow solar wind conditions are expected over the next 24 hours, with possible enhancements starting late on July 30. Geomagnetism: Geomagnetic conditions globally were mostly at quiet levels to unsettled levels (NOAA Kp between 0 and 3-). Geomagnetic conditions locally were mostly at unsettled levels (K BEL 3-). Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for the next 24 hours, with major storm conditions possible starting late on July 30. Proton flux levels: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the threshold level over the next 24 hours. Electron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the threshold level in the last 24 hours, with an enhancement seen by GOES-18 between 18:40 and 23:30 UTC on July 28. It is expected to remain mostly below the threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence is presently at normal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.Сегодняшнее значение числа солнечных пятен (International Sunspot Number): 211,
получено на основе анализа результатов 24 станций наблюдения.
Солнечные индексы за 28 Jul 2024
Число Вольфа по данным обсерватории Катания (IT9): ///
Солнечный поток в диапазоне 10см: 214
A-индекс по данным обсерватории Chambon-la-Foret (F): 014
A-индекс по данным обсерватории Wingst (DL): 012
Планетарный А-индекс Ap: 010
Вчерашнее значение числа солнечных пятен (International Sunspot Number): 203,
получено на основе анализа результатов 28 станций наблюдения.
Прошедшие события на Солнце:
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES
28 1243 1250 1255 S09E15 M2.6 SF 32/3766
28 1808 1826 1840 S13W30 M1.3 1F 37/3768 III/3
28 2025 2036 2049 S10W47 M1.9 1N 26/3762
29 0233 0237 0243 S05W04 X1.5 2B 30/3764 II/2
29 0510 0520 0528 S14W36 M1.0 SF 37/3768 III/2