QRZ.RU EXPRESS от 28 июля 2024

Опубликовано: 27 июля 2024 в 1258 UTC
SIDC URSIGRAM 40727
Состояние солнечной активности на 27 июля 2024, 1256UT
Прогноз SIDC
Солнечные вспышки. Ожидаются вспышки класса M (вероятность >=50%)
Геомагнитное поле: Возмущенное (A>=20, K=4)
Солнечные протоны: Спокойное состояние
Прогноз на 27 июля 2024: Солнечный поток в диапазоне 10см: 180 / AP-индекс: 015
Прогноз на 28 июля 2024: Солнечный поток в диапазоне 10см: 177 / AP-индекс: 019
Прогноз на 29 июля 2024: Солнечный поток в диапазоне 10см: 175 / AP-индекс: 007
Комментарий (на английском языке): Solar Active Regions and flaring: The solar flaring activity was at moderate level during the last 24 hours, with several C-class flares and three M-class flares. The strongest flare was GOES M4.2 flare from NOAA active region (AR) 3766 which peaked at 02:37 UTC on Jul 27. During the flare, the source region (AR 3766) of the flare had beta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. Apart from NOAA AR 3766, NOAA AR 3762 which is the most complex region on the disk (beta-gamma-delta magnetic field configuration) has produced two M-class flares. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels over the next 24 hours, possibly with few M-class flares and a low chance for isolated X-class flares. Coronal mass ejections: A halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed on SOHO/LASCO coronograph images starting around 05:00 UTC on Jul 27 (detected by CACTUS tool). It has a projected speed of about 560 km/s (as measured by CACTUS tool). Further analysis is ongoing to estimate the potential Earth- directed components. Type IV radio emissions were detected at 06:43 UTC on Jul 27, which is possibly associated to a CME. Further analysis will be carried out once the corresponding LASCO images are available. No other Earth-directed components of CME has been identified in the available coronograph imagery. Solar wind: Solar wind parameters are transitioning from fast to slow solar wind regime. The solar wind speed ranged between 420 km/s and 550 km/s. The North-South component (Bz) ranged between -7 and 6 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field ranged between 5 nT and 8 nT. Slow solar wind conditions are expected to continue over the next 24 hours, unless the glancing blow from the coronal mass ejection that was observed lifting from the Sun on the evening of Jul 24 enhances the solar wind. Geomagnetism: Geomagnetic conditions were globally and locally at quiet to active conditions (NOAA Kp and K BEL 1 to 4). Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected in the next 24 hours. Active conditions are possible, if the Earth experiences glancing blow from the coronal mass ejection that was observed lifting from the Sun on the evening of Jul 24. Proton flux levels: The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain so during the next 24 hours. Electron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the coming 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence is presently at low level, and it is expected to be at low to normal level in the next 24 hours.Сегодняшнее значение числа солнечных пятен (International Sunspot Number): 213,
получено на основе анализа результатов 15 станций наблюдения.
Солнечные индексы за 26 Jul 2024
Число Вольфа по данным обсерватории Катания (IT9): 262
Солнечный поток в диапазоне 10см: 176
A-индекс по данным обсерватории Chambon-la-Foret (F): 024
A-индекс по данным обсерватории Wingst (DL): 028
Планетарный А-индекс Ap: 026
Вчерашнее значение числа солнечных пятен (International Sunspot Number): 199,
получено на основе анализа результатов 29 станций наблюдения.
Прошедшие события на Солнце:
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES
27 0221 0237 0245 S09E24 M4.2 1N 32/3766 VII/3
27 0512 0546 0619 S11W30 M3.1 SF 26/3762 VI/2II/2
27 1016 1040 1106 S09E40 M2.0 1F 35/3767 III/2