QRZ.RU EXPRESS от 15 июля 2024

Опубликовано: 14 июля 2024 в 1240 UTC
SIDC URSIGRAM 40714
Состояние солнечной активности на 14 июля 2024, 1239UT
Прогноз SIDC
Солнечные вспышки. Ожидаются вспышки класса M (вероятность >=50%)
Геомагнитное поле: Возмущенное (A>=20, K=4)
Солнечные протоны: Ожидается увеличение возмущенности (уровни активности повысятся,
но точного числового прогноза нет)
Прогноз на 14 июля 2024: Солнечный поток в диапазоне 10см: 235 / AP-индекс: 014
Прогноз на 15 июля 2024: Солнечный поток в диапазоне 10см: 230 / AP-индекс: 012
Прогноз на 16 июля 2024: Солнечный поток в диапазоне 10см: 230 / AP-индекс: 004
Комментарий (на английском языке): Solar Active Regions and flaring: Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours reached high levels with multiple M-class flaring and an impulsive X1.2-flare, start time 02:23 UTC, peak time 03:18 UTC, end time 02:34 UTC on July 14. The X-flare was produced by the largest and most complex active region NOAA AR 3738 (beta-gamma-delta), which increased the complexity of its underlying magnetic field and was responsible for most of the registered flaring activity. There are currently eleven numbered active regions on the visible solar disc. Isolated M-class flaring was produced by the new region NOAA AR 3751 and high C-class flaring was produced by NOAA AR 3743 (beta) and NOAA AR 3742 (beta). NOAA AR 3744 (beta-gamma) has shown some development, but has remained silent. The remaining active regions have remained mostly stable and quiet. The solar flaring activity is likely to be at moderate to high levels over the coming days with 80% chance for M-class flaring and 30% chances for isolated X-class flaring. Coronal mass ejections: No Earth-directed coronal mass ejection (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours. Solar wind: Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) were indicative of background slow solar wind conditions with some small perturbations since around 05 UTC on July 14. The solar wind velocity was in the range of 265 km/s to 375 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field registered a maximum value of 6.9 nT with a minimum Bz of -4.1 nT. The B field phi angle was predominantly in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun) with prolonged periods in the positive sector registered on July 14. The solar wind conditions are expected to register moderate disturbances later on July 14 and July 15 with anticipated high speed stream arrival related to a positive polarity equatorial coronal hole which crossed the central meridian on July 10. Geomagnetism: The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were globally quiet and quiet to unsettled conditions were registered over Belgium. Quiet to active conditions are anticipated for July 14 with low chances for isolated minor storms due to anticipated high speed stream arrival. Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for July 15 and July 16. Proton flux levels: Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at background levels and is expected to remain so over the next days. Electron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 16 and GOES 18 was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the upcoming days. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to remain so in the next days.Сегодняшнее значение числа солнечных пятен (International Sunspot Number): 221,
получено на основе анализа результатов 23 станций наблюдения.
Солнечные индексы за 13 Jul 2024
Число Вольфа по данным обсерватории Катания (IT9): ///
Солнечный поток в диапазоне 10см: 238
A-индекс по данным обсерватории Chambon-la-Foret (F): 010
A-индекс по данным обсерватории Wingst (DL): 006
Планетарный А-индекс Ap: 006
Вчерашнее значение числа солнечных пятен (International Sunspot Number): 182,
получено на основе анализа результатов 21 станций наблюдения.
Прошедшие события на Солнце:
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES
13 1221 1242 1258 ////// M5.3 85/3738 /1 29I/1
13 1459 1530 1541 ////// M1.8 05/3747
13 1541 1544 1548 ////// M1.9 05/3747
13 1925 1930 1934 ////// M1.0 F 85/3738
13 2244 2301 2312 ////// M5.0 85/3738
14 0105 0116 0131 ////// M1.7 85/3738
14 0223 0234 0248 ////// X1.2 /////// II/2
14 0405 0413 0418 ////// M3.0 F 85/3738 I/2II/1
14 1016 1020 1024 ////// M1.0 F 85/3738