QRZ.RU EXPRESS от 26 июня 2024

Опубликовано: 25 июня 2024 в 1231 UTC
SIDC URSIGRAM 40625
Состояние солнечной активности на 25 июня 2024, 1230UT
Прогноз SIDC
Солнечные вспышки. Ожидаются вспышки класса M (вероятность >=50%)
Геомагнитное поле: Спокойное состояние (A<20 and K<4)
Солнечные протоны: Ожидается увеличение возмущенности (уровни активности повысятся,
но точного числового прогноза нет)
Прогноз на 25 июня 2024: Солнечный поток в диапазоне 10см: 193 / AP-индекс: 013
Прогноз на 26 июня 2024: Солнечный поток в диапазоне 10см: 193 / AP-индекс: 007
Прогноз на 27 июня 2024: Солнечный поток в диапазоне 10см: 191 / AP-индекс: 007
Комментарий (на английском языке): Solar Active Regions and flaring: Solar flaring activity was at moderate levels, with multiple C-class flares and one M-class flare recorded in the past 24 hours. The largest flare of the period was an M1.1 flare, peaking at 19:10 UTC on June 25, associated with NOAA AR 3713, which rotated over the west limb. NOAA AR 3720 became magnetically more complex (from beta to beta-gamma class), but produced only C-class flares in the last 24 hours. Low flaring activity was also produced by NOAA ARs 3716 and 3723 (beta class). The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares possible and a small chance of isolated X-class flares. Coronal mass ejections: A large filament eruption was observed on SW quadrant around 02:18 UTC on June 25. An associated CME can be seen in SOHO/LASCO-C2 data from 05:43 UTC on June 25. We are awaiting for the corresponding coronagraph data for further analysis. No other Earth- directed CMEs have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours. Solar wind: Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) were reflecting near slow solar wind conditions, with some transient features having a mild influence. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude reached 9 nT around 10:35 UTC on June 25. The solar wind speed ranged between 295 km/s and 350 km/s. The southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between -7 nT and 7 nT. The magnetic field orientation was predominantly in the negative sector (field directed towards the Sun). Solar wind parameters are expected to gradually return to slow solar wind conditions over the next few days. Geomagnetism: The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet both globally and locally (NOAA Kp = 1-3-, K-Bel = 1-2). Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Proton flux levels: The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was slightly enhanced on June 24 but remained well below radiation storm levels. There has been a data outage for the GOES Proton Flux since approximately 21:20 UTC on June 24. The proton flux is expected to remain below 10 pfu threshold over the next day, with a very small chance that a particle event occurs in association with an X-class flare or a coronal mass ejection. Electron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu threshold as measured by GOES 16. It is expected to remain below this threshold over the next days. The 24-hour electron fluence was at nominal levels. The electron fluence is expected remain at nominal levels over the next days.Сегодняшнее значение числа солнечных пятен (International Sunspot Number): 139,
получено на основе анализа результатов 21 станций наблюдения.
Солнечные индексы за 24 Jun 2024
Число Вольфа по данным обсерватории Катания (IT9): 198
Солнечный поток в диапазоне 10см: 199
A-индекс по данным обсерватории Chambon-la-Foret (F): 007
A-индекс по данным обсерватории Wingst (DL): 006
Планетарный А-индекс Ap: 006
Вчерашнее значение числа солнечных пятен (International Sunspot Number): 152,
получено на основе анализа результатов 29 станций наблюдения.
Прошедшие события на Солнце:
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES
24 1109 1113 1115 S05E18 M1.1 1F 58/3720
24 1902 1910 1914 ////// M1.1 52/3713