QRZ.RU EXPRESS от 19 апреля 2022

Опубликовано: 2022 Apr 18 1307 UTC
SIDC URSIGRAM 20418
Состояние солнечной активности на 18 Apr 2022, 1305UT
Прогноз сделан для периода с 1230UT, 18 Apr 2022 до 20 Apr 2022)
SOLAR FLARES : X-class flares expected (probability >=50%)
Геомагнитное поле: Спокойное состояние (A<20 and K<4)
Солнечные протоны: Спокойное состояние
Прогноз на 18 Apr 2022: плотность потока солнечного излучения: 144, A-индекс: 010
Прогноз на 19 Apr 2022: плотность потока солнечного излучения: 150, A-индекс: 018
Прогноз на 20 Apr 2022: плотность потока солнечного излучения: 150, A-индекс: 016
Комментарий (на английском языке): Solar flaring activity was moderate with 4 M class flares occurring over the period. Surprisingly, the strongest of them, an M4.4 flare peaking at 22:34UT (as well as the earlier M1.5 flare peaking at 20:02UT) was from NOAA Active Region (AR) 2992 in the west and not from the strong and complex regions in the east, NOAA AR 2993 and 2994 (which yesterday produced the X flare). NOAA AR 2993 was responsible though for the recent M1.1 flare peaking at 10:27UT while the M1.3 flare peaking at 7:48UT probably has contributions both from NOAA AR 2993 in the east and NOAA AR 2992 in the west. Both NOAA AR 2993 and 2994 are large and complex bipolar regions with flux emergence being observed in between the two regions. They remain a very likely source for strong flaring. NOAA AR 2992 seemed to develop new spots over the period, but is becoming hard to analyse more precisely as it approaches the west limb. As in the past 24h the region contributes to the potential for strong flares. Overall flares at M level are likely with also a very significant chance for X flares, from the regions in the east. A filament eruption is associated to the flaring activity from NOAA AR 2992. SoHO LASCO images show two possibly associated signatures: a front towards the south visible from 16:36UT in LASCO C2, and one towards the south-west from 2012UT onwards. Unfortunately C2 images are lacking in between those two timestamps. It is not fully clear whether the first CME front is associated to the eruption from near NOAA AR 2992. A better assessment will be made as more information becomes available, but based on the extent and direction observed in LASCO C3 we currently judge the eruptions to be too far off the Sun-Earth line to reach Earth. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels and is expected to remain so. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached briefly above the 1000 pfu alert threshold at the diurnal maximum. The 24h electron fluence reached moderate levels and is expected to be normal to moderate, given the continuing high speed stream Solar wind conditions. Solar wind speed increased again from around 500 km/s to hovering around 550 km/s, indicating continued high speed stream conditions. The interplanetary magnetic field was between 5-10nT with a variable north- south component, and an orientation indicating connection to a positive polarity sector. Solar wind conditions are expected to slowly subside with tomorrow morning to noon a possible increase from a potential glancing blow of the April 17 CME, though chances for this are low. Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (NOAA Kp 2-3 and local K Belgium 1-3). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled. But they could reach active conditions if a glancing blow from the April 17 CME occurs.Сегодняшнее значение числа солнечных пятен (International Sunspot Number): 100,
получено на основе анализа результатов 19 станций наблюдения.
Солнечные индексы за 17 Apr 2022
Число Вольфа по данным обсерватории Катания (IT9): ///
Плотность потока излучения: 135
A-индекс по данным обсерватории Chambon-la-Foret (F): 014
A-индекс по данным обсерватории Wingst (DL): 014
Планетарный А-индекс Ap: 013
Вчерашнее значение числа солнечных пятен (International Sunspot Number): 080,
получено на основе анализа результатов 25 станций наблюдения.
Прошедшие события на Солнце:
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES
17 1952 2002 2006 S31W70 M1.5 SF 42 76/2992
17 2228 2234 2240 S31W73 M4.4 SF 110 76/2992 II/1
18 0737 0748 0754 N19E67 M1.3 SF ///2993
18 1004 1027 1049 ////// M1.1 ///2993 III/1