QRZ.RU EXPRESS от 16 апреля 2022

Опубликовано: 2022 Apr 15 1235 UTC
SIDC URSIGRAM 20415
Состояние солнечной активности на 15 Apr 2022, 1233UT
Прогноз сделан для периода с 1230UT, 15 Apr 2022 до 17 Apr 2022)
SOLAR FLARES : C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)
Геомагнитное поле: Возмущенное (A>=20, K=4)
Солнечные протоны: Спокойное состояние
Прогноз на 15 Apr 2022: плотность потока солнечного излучения: 103, A-индекс: 021
Прогноз на 16 Apr 2022: плотность потока солнечного излучения: 108, A-индекс: 013
Прогноз на 17 Apr 2022: плотность потока солнечного излучения: 110, A-индекс: 008
Комментарий (на английском языке): During last 24 hours several C-class flares and one M-class flare were reported, originating from the active region situated behind the East solar limb. We can expect more flaring activity of the C-class level and also isolated M-class flares as this region will rotate to the visible side of the solar discs (as seen from Earth). The M 1.2 class flare peaked at 11:01 UT today while its source region was behind the East solar limb. The coronagraph data are still not available, however, as the source region was not on the visible side od the solar disc, the possibly associated CME will not be Earth-directed. Several CMEs were reported during last 24 hours but neither of them is expected to arrive to Earth. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels, and we expect that it will remain so in the coming hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was, during last 24 hours, fluctuating around the 1000 pfu threshold. We do not expect significant increase above the 1000 pfu threshold in the coming hours. The 24h electron fluence is at normal to moderate level and we expect it will stay so in the coming 24 hours. Earth is presently in the post CME flow with the somewhat elevated solar wind speed (about 500 km/s) and the magnetic field amplitude (about 10 nT). During the passage of the complex ICME structure, at about 12:30 UT on April 13, the solar wind velocity suddenly increased from about 460 to 560 km/s. At the same time the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field turned to negative value (down to -11 nT ) and that resulted in disturbed geomagnetic conditions. Few intervals of K=5 were reported by local station at Dourbes, and NOAA reported few intervals of Kp=5 and one interval of the Kp=6. The geomagnetic conditions are presently active to unsettled and we expect them to stay so in the comming hours.Сегодняшнее значение числа солнечных пятен (International Sunspot Number): 041,
получено на основе анализа результатов 17 станций наблюдения.
Солнечные индексы за 14 Apr 2022
Число Вольфа по данным обсерватории Катания (IT9): ///
Плотность потока излучения: 103
A-индекс по данным обсерватории Chambon-la-Foret (F): 056
A-индекс по данным обсерватории Wingst (DL): 036
Планетарный А-индекс Ap: 038
Вчерашнее значение числа солнечных пятен (International Sunspot Number): 037,
получено на основе анализа результатов 36 станций наблюдения.
Прошедшие события на Солнце:
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES
15 1031 1101 1107 ////// M1.2 ///////