QRZ.RU EXPRESS от 11 марта 2021

Опубликовано: 2021 Mar 10 1316 UTC

SIDC URSIGRAM 10310
Состояние солнечной активности на 10 Mar 2021, 1316UT
Прогноз сделан для периода с 1230UT, 10 Mar 2021 до 12 Mar 2021)
Солнечная активность: очень низкая. Вероятность вспышек C-класса менее 50%
Геомагнитное поле: Спокойное состояние (A<20 and K<4)
Протонные вспышки: Спокойное состояние
Прогноз на 10 Mar 2021: плотность потока солнечного излучения: 085, A-индекс: 005
Прогноз на 11 Mar 2021: плотность потока солнечного излучения: 084, A-индекс: 007
Прогноз на 12 Mar 2021: плотность потока солнечного излучения: 082, A-индекс: 010

Комментарий (на английском языке): The new region, Catania group 78 (NOAA 2808), produced a C1.6 flare in the last 24 hours and has now fully turned to the Earth-facing solar hemisphere. Further C-level flare activity might take place in the next 24 hours. No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been observed in coronagraph data. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux peaked over the 1000 pfu event threshold during its diurnal maximum and maybe do so again today. The 24h electron fluence reached moderate levels and is expected to drop slowly over the next days. A low latitude corona hole of negative polarity in the southern hemisphere is now crossing the solar central meridian. The solar wind continued to decline from the enhanced solar wind conditions. The solar wind speed is at 400 km/s and is expected to decline further during the next 24 hours. The magnetic field strength is below 5 nT and is expected to remain weak. The magnetic field was directed away from the Sun and is expected to remain largely so. Solar wind conditions are expected to further decay slowly over the next day. The corona hole crossing that crossed the solar meridian in the last 24 hours, is expected to effect the solar wind conditions in approximately 3 days. The sector boundary crossing ahead of it is expected on 12 March followed by an increase in the magnetic field strength. Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (both NOAA Kp and local K Dourbes had values 0-3). They are expected to remain quiet to unsettled for the next 24 to 48 hours. An increased level is expected afterwards due to the expected sector boundary crossing and enhanced solar wind conditions.Сегодняшнее значение числа солнечных пятен (International Sunspot Number): 015,
получено на основе анализа результатов 13 станций наблюдения.
Солнечные индексы за 09 Mar 2021
Число Вольфа по данным обсерватории Катания (IT9): 025
Плотность потока излучения: 084
A-индекс по данным обсерватории Chambon-la-Foret (F): 005
A-индекс по данным обсерватории Wingst (DL): 003
Планетарный А-индекс Ap: 002
Вчерашнее значение числа солнечных пятен (International Sunspot Number): 018,
получено на основе анализа результатов 17 станций наблюдения.
Прошедшие события на Солнце:
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES

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