QRZ.RU EXPRESS от 6 марта 2021

Опубликовано: 2021 Mar 05 1230 UTC

SIDC URSIGRAM 10305
Состояние солнечной активности на 05 Mar 2021, 1230UT
Прогноз сделан для периода с 1230UT, 05 Mar 2021 до 07 Mar 2021)
Солнечная активность: очень низкая. Вероятность вспышек C-класса менее 50%
Геомагнитное поле: Возмущенное (A>=20, K=4)
Протонные вспышки: Спокойное состояние
Прогноз на 05 Mar 2021: плотность потока солнечного излучения: 074, A-индекс: 010
Прогноз на 06 Mar 2021: плотность потока солнечного излучения: 074, A-индекс: 021
Прогноз на 07 Mar 2021: плотность потока солнечного излучения: 074, A-индекс: 017

Комментарий (на английском языке): NOAA region 2806 has decayed to a plage while Beta region 2807 has also decayed a lot. The Sun did not produce any C flares during the past 24 hours. The chance for a C flare in the next 24 hours is estimated at 5%. No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraphic imagery. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate levels in the past 24 hours. Moderate values are possible in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence was at moderate levels during the past 24 hours. Moderate levels are possible in the next 24 hours. Solar wind speed near Earth as registered by DSCOVR further decreased from about 490 km/s to about 380 km/s. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) was predominantly oriented towards the Sun and its magnitude varied between about 1 and 6 nT. Bz was never below -5 nT. Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected upon the expected arrival on March 5 of a high speed stream associated with a positive polarity equatorial coronal hole that crossed the Central Meridian on March 1. Quiet conditions (K Dourbes between 1 and 2; NOAA Kp between 2 and 3) were registered in the past 24 hours. Active conditions (K Dourbes = 4) are possible on March 5, 6 and 7 after the expected arrival of the high speed stream associated with the coronal hole that crossed the Central Meridian on March 1, with a chance for minor storm intervals (K Dourbes = 5).Сегодняшнее значение числа солнечных пятен (International Sunspot Number): 011,
получено на основе анализа результатов 13 станций наблюдения.
Солнечные индексы за 04 Mar 2021
Число Вольфа по данным обсерватории Катания (IT9): 035
Плотность потока излучения: 081
A-индекс по данным обсерватории Chambon-la-Foret (F): 014
A-индекс по данным обсерватории Wingst (DL): 012
Планетарный А-индекс Ap: 012
Вчерашнее значение числа солнечных пятен (International Sunspot Number): 025,
получено на основе анализа результатов 19 станций наблюдения.
Прошедшие события на Солнце:
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES

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