QRZ.RU EXPRESS от 26 февраля 2021

Опубликовано: 2021 Feb 25 1258 UTC

SIDC URSIGRAM 10225
Состояние солнечной активности на 25 Feb 2021, 1257UT
Прогноз сделан для периода с 1230UT, 25 Feb 2021 до 27 Feb 2021)
Солнечная активность: очень низкая. Вероятность вспышек C-класса менее 50%
Геомагнитное поле: Возмущенное (A>=20, K=4)
Протонные вспышки: Спокойное состояние
Прогноз на 25 Feb 2021: плотность потока солнечного излучения: 081, A-индекс: 014
Прогноз на 26 Feb 2021: плотность потока солнечного излучения: 078, A-индекс: 007
Прогноз на 27 Feb 2021: плотность потока солнечного излучения: 078, A-индекс: 006

Комментарий (на английском языке): The solar activity has been mostly quiet over the past 24 hours. Regions Catania 74/NOAA AR 2804 and Catania 75/NOAA 12805 had a low flaring activity. The solar flaring activity is expected to remain at low levels for the next 24 hours. No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) were observed in the available coronagraphic imagery. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained over the 1000 pfu threshold for the second half of Feb 24. It is expected to have values around the threshold for the next 24 hours, as a response to the possible arrival on Feb 24 of the CME that took place on Feb 20. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence remained on moderate levels in the past 24 hours. It is expect to be at moderate levels for the next 24 hours. The past 24 hours the solar wind speed ranged between 430 km/s and 510 km/s. The total magnetic field ranged between 3 nT and 10 nT. The Bz component fluctuated between -8 nT and 8 nT. The orientation of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) fluctuated from the negative (towards the Sun) to the positive sector (away from the Sun). The solar wind parameters reflect the effects of a possible glancing blow of the sides of the CME from Feb 20. An extension of the northern positive Coronal Hole (CH) is expected to cross the Central Meridian (CM) tomorrow. The same applies for the negative polarity southern CH crossing the solar disc. The associated high speed streams should be expected about Feb 29 and not Feb 26 as was previously erroneously reported. The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were active (K Dourbes and Kp=4), as a possible response to the CME glancing blow. They are expected to return to mainly quiet to unsettled levels for the next 24 hours, with a slight chance of an isolated active event (K Dourbes=4).Сегодняшнее значение числа солнечных пятен (International Sunspot Number): 033,
получено на основе анализа результатов 21 станций наблюдения.
Солнечные индексы за 24 Feb 2021
Число Вольфа по данным обсерватории Катания (IT9): 043
Плотность потока излучения: 081
A-индекс по данным обсерватории Chambon-la-Foret (F): 039
A-индекс по данным обсерватории Wingst (DL): ///
Планетарный А-индекс Ap: 015
Вчерашнее значение числа солнечных пятен (International Sunspot Number): 034,
получено на основе анализа результатов 22 станций наблюдения.
Прошедшие события на Солнце:
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES

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