QRZ.RU EXPRESS от 24 февраля 2021

Опубликовано: 2021 Feb 23 1233 UTC

SIDC URSIGRAM 10223
Состояние солнечной активности на 23 Feb 2021, 1232UT
Прогноз сделан для периода с 1230UT, 23 Feb 2021 до 25 Feb 2021)
Солнечная активность: очень низкая. Вероятность вспышек C-класса менее 50%
Геомагнитное поле: Возмущенное (A>=20, K=4)
Протонные вспышки: Спокойное состояние
Прогноз на 23 Feb 2021: плотность потока солнечного излучения: 075, A-индекс: 020
Прогноз на 24 Feb 2021: плотность потока солнечного излучения: 075, A-индекс: 008
Прогноз на 25 Feb 2021: плотность потока солнечного излучения: 074, A-индекс: 005

Комментарий (на английском языке): The solar activity has been mostly quiet over the past 24 hours. Region Catania 73/NOAA AR 2803 is forming into a plage. Region Catania 74/NOAA AR 2804 had a low flaring activity while region Catania 75/NOAA 12805 appeared on the southern hemisphere. The solar flaring activity is expected to remain at low levels for the next 24 hours. No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) were observed in the available coronagraphic imagery. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained mainly over the 1000 pfu threshold. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence remained on moderate levels in the past 24 hours. Both the electron flux and fluence are expected to remain elevated from the possible arrival of the expected CME from Feb. 20, but with a decreasing trend. Over the past 24 hours, the Earth has remained on the fast solar wind regime. The influence of the two negative polarity southern Coronal Holes (CH) seems to just have past, since the magnetic field polarity switched to positive at about Feb 23 11:00UT. The solar wind speed ranged between 535 km/s and 635 km/s. The total magnetic field ranged between 2 nT and 7 nT. The Bz component fluctuated between -5 nT and 5 nT. A newly emerged negative southern CH is on the visible solar disk. The associated high speed stream should be expected about Feb 26. A possible solar wind shock due to the arrival of the CME on Feb 20 can be expected on Feb 23. The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet to unsettled, with an isolated active event early Feb 23 (K Dourbes and Kp=4).They are expected to remain in the same levels in response to the possible shock from the arrival of the CME on Feb 20.Сегодняшнее значение числа солнечных пятен (International Sunspot Number): 033,
получено на основе анализа результатов 16 станций наблюдения.
Солнечные индексы за 22 Feb 2021
Число Вольфа по данным обсерватории Катания (IT9): 026
Плотность потока излучения: 076
A-индекс по данным обсерватории Chambon-la-Foret (F): 029
A-индекс по данным обсерватории Wingst (DL): ///
Планетарный А-индекс Ap: 021
Вчерашнее значение числа солнечных пятен (International Sunspot Number): 019,
получено на основе анализа результатов 30 станций наблюдения.
Прошедшие события на Солнце:
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES

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