QRZ.RU EXPRESS от 14 мая 2022

Опубликовано: 2022 May 13 1232 UTC
SIDC URSIGRAM 20513
Состояние солнечной активности на 13 May 2022, 1230UT
Прогноз сделан для периода с 1230UT, 13 May 2022 до 15 May 2022)
SOLAR FLARES : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)
Геомагнитное поле: Возмущенное (A>=20, K=4)
Солнечные протоны: Спокойное состояние
Прогноз на 13 May 2022: плотность потока солнечного излучения: 133, A-индекс: 011
Прогноз на 14 May 2022: плотность потока солнечного излучения: 133, A-индекс: 010
Прогноз на 15 May 2022: плотность потока солнечного излучения: 130, A-индекс: 004
Комментарий (на английском языке): Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at moderate levels with a single low M1.3-class flare, peak time 20:19 UTC on May 12th, from behind the north-east limb and several low C-class flares. The strongest activity on the visible disc was a C4.3-class flare (peak time 18:10 UTC on May 12th), produced by active region NOAA 3010 (alpha), which rotated from over the south-east limb over the past 24h. Active region NOAA 3007 (beta-gamma-delta), now approaching the central meridian, has significantly grown in number of sun spots. Regardless of its complexity, this region has produced only low levels of activity. Active region NOAA 3006 (beta) has remained mostly stable and produced isolated low C-class flaring. Regions NOAA 3008 (beta) and 3009 (beta) have remained simple and inactive. Another simple active region has rotated over the north-east limb and remains to be further classified and numbered. The X-ray flaring activity over the next 24 hours is expected to remain at moderate levels with probable M-class flaring and some chances for X-class flaring. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were detected in the available coronagraph imagery. The 10 MeV proton flux has returned to nominal levels over the past 24 hours. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain below radiation storm threshold over the next 24 hours with possible enhancements subject to any significant flaring activity and related eruptions. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal to low levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours. Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) have been mostly at background slow solar wind conditions. The solar wind velocity showed gradual increase from 300 km/s to 383 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field reached XX nT with a minimum Bz of -XX nT. The B field orientation was mostly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). The solar wind conditions are expected to reflect background solar wind throughout the evening. During the night or early tomorrow the solar wind parameters are expected to register some enhancements following the anticipated arrival of a flank from the May 10th CME. A large positive polarity coronal hole has crossed the central meridian and the related high speed stream is expected to arrive to Earth on May 16th. The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were globally quiet and locally quiet to unsettled due to registered solar wind transients. Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions are expected for the next 24 hours with the possible arrival of a flank from the May 10th CME.Сегодняшнее значение числа солнечных пятен (International Sunspot Number): 119,
получено на основе анализа результатов 15 станций наблюдения.
Солнечные индексы за 12 May 2022
Число Вольфа по данным обсерватории Катания (IT9): 139
Плотность потока излучения: 133
A-индекс по данным обсерватории Chambon-la-Foret (F): 014
A-индекс по данным обсерватории Wingst (DL): 010
Планетарный А-индекс Ap: 009
Вчерашнее значение числа солнечных пятен (International Sunspot Number): 113,
получено на основе анализа результатов 24 станций наблюдения.
Прошедшие события на Солнце:
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES
12 2004 2019 2027 ////// M1.3 ///////